2026-09-25 至 2026-10-02 · 七账户盲回放

每次只展示当时可知数据,日历整体平移。旧/新两版逐根回放,各自10,000 USDT。进行中结果只覆盖已完成时段;失败重试,不替换为hold。经验来自本期,属于回顾性假设检验,不是独立样本外结果。

同一历史K线的两版账户会逐渐形成不同仓位;列出的已成交分支净损益可揭示等待或入场的代价,不能当作严格因果增益。未记录完整交易计划的hold不虚构避免止损次数或漏赚利润。历史bid/ask、mark以分钟成交价格代理,含既定滑点、手续费和历史资金费;响应延迟固定一分钟。

paper

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old13/168 · waiting_retry00.00.00
new13/168 · waiting_retry1-0.6010.9048.42
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T05:00:00+00:00 HYPEUSDT
旧:hold Below EMA20 92.28 and EMA50 93.03, but EMA200 91.03 and support 90.955 are only about 1% below. A short gets under 1.2R, and a long is against the stack with 92.62 resistance nearby.
新:open_short HYPE is the weakest structure: lower highs at 94.744, 92.619 and 92.151, below EMA20 (92.28) and EMA50 (93.03), and the drift back up over the last three bars has come on falling volume. Passive sell at 92.35 into EMA20, below the 92.619 swing high. Stop at 92.90 sits above that high, about 0.6%. Target 91.05 sits just above the first support at 90.955. Net R is about (1.41-0.14)/(0.60+0.14) = 1.7. The setup is invalid on a move above 92.62.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-60.110389999999796

paper_astra

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old61/168 · ready20.2470.7019.35
new63/168 · ready14-1.9894.00985.91
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold Close 1544.56 holds above EMA20 1538.38 and EMA50 1535.11, but remains inside the range bounded by 1532.06 support and 1563.34 resistance. A stop buffered below support leaves insufficient net reward to resistance, with nearer selling also evident around 1551–1556.
新:open_long The latest candle rebounded from 1535 and closed above EMA20/50 at 1538.38/1535.11, preserving 1532.06 support. Buy a pullback at 1535, with invalidation below that support at 1526. Target 1552 precedes nearby supply at 1555.8, yielding approximately 1.33R after costs; both close and supplied mark remain above the trigger.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:85.86944444444444

2026-09-25T11:00:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold Repeated rejection at 1617.18–1618.14 caps upside. A long with a structural stop below 1571.61 cannot earn 1.2R before that obstacle; the bullish EMA alignment also argues against an unconfirmed short.
新:open_long Price retains the breakout above 1574.99 with EMA20 above EMA50. Buy at 1582 on a pullback; stop 1567 sits below the 1571.61 retracement low. Conservatively treat the older 1612.6 high as the first obstacle, ahead of 1617.18-1618.14 supply. Target 1610 yields approximately 1.50R after costs. Both close and mark exceed the trigger; the earlier winning trade is supporting context, not sufficient evidence by itself.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-56.754629196858325

2026-09-25T21:00:00+00:00 HYPEUSDT
旧:hold Price remains below EMA20 92.0916 and EMA50 92.6481, but the latest candle recovered to 91.652. Nearby demand around 91.277–91.0 constrains reward from shorting the preceding rejection at 92.156; no fresh breakdown is confirmed.
新:open_short Sell a rally to 92.3 beneath the 92.481 breakdown-candle high; stop 92.7 invalidates that rejection structure. Price remains below EMA20/50 at 92.0916/92.6481, and the latest recovery follows a failed push to 92.156. Take profit before the nearby 91.277–91.304 support cluster rather than projecting through it to 90.3. Net target reward is approximately 1.55R. Close, mark and limit are below the 92.481 trigger.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-31.843705867666237

2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00 HYPEUSDT
旧:hold The rebound to 92.806 failed and price closed below EMA20/50 at 91.696. However, support 91.277 is too close to justify a market short with a stop beyond the rebound high; wait for a better entry or confirmed support break.
新:open_short The latest candle rejected 92.5 and closed back below EMA20/50 at 92.1222/92.6007, establishing a fresh failed recovery. Sell a rally to 92.45 while below 92.806; stop 93 clears that recovery high instead of repeating the prior 92.7 invalidation. Target 91.35 precedes the latest 91.325 low and nearby 91.277 support, providing approximately 1.43R after costs. The previous short loss warrants modest risk, not an automatic veto.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:45.458642616584235

2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Volume rose to 71.32m as price swept 0.5035 to 0.5128 but closed back at 0.4917. Resistance 0.5035 remains unbroken on a closing basis; RSI 73.3 and the large upper wick favor waiting for consolidation before another long.
新:open_long The close retains the break above 0.4895–0.4912 with bullish EMA alignment, although the high-volume rejection from 0.5128 weakens immediate entry quality. Buy a pullback at 0.4898 while the setup holds above the prior 0.4839 low; stop 0.482 clears that structural low. Target 0.503 precedes the first unbroken high at 0.5035 and yields approximately 1.47R after costs. Reduced risk reflects rejection risk; the limit may miss continued strength.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-26.69915650611066

2026-09-26T07:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Two rising closes above EMA20 at 0.473168 suggest stabilization, but rebound volume declined to 14.36m. The recent reaction high at 0.4876 is the first obstacle; a market long with a stop below 0.4756 cannot earn 1.2R net before it. The earlier winning breakout does not establish a fresh entry here.
新:open_long Two recovery closes from 0.4756 support preserve bullish EMA alignment. Buy a pullback at 0.478, with stop below that low at 0.4745 and target before the first obstacle, the 0.4848 rebound high. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.40 after 0.14% costs. Close, mark and proposed fill remain above the 0.4756 trigger. This uses newly defended support following the earlier failed breakout; the limit may miss continued recovery.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-28.81457851547194

2026-09-26T09:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold The 0.93% decline on rising volume confirms weakness, but price remains above unbroken support at 0.0043825, followed by 0.0043747. Only about 0.35% remains to the first obstacle from mark, insufficient for a structural short stop after costs. No bullish reversal is present.
新:open_short Two expanding-volume declines confirmed a break below 0.0044384 and 0.0044208, with price beneath EMA20/50. Sell a rebound to 0.004431; stop 0.00445 clears the latest breakdown high at 0.0044374. Target 0.004386 precedes the fresh 0.0043842 low and 0.0043825 support, giving approximately 1.54R after costs. Close, mark and limit remain below the 0.0044384 trigger. The limit may miss continuation but avoids selling directly into support.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-24.350325576407965

2026-09-26T10:00:00+00:00 HYPEUSDT
旧:hold Close 92.004 barely reclaimed EMA20, with unbroken resistance at 92.178 immediately overhead. Support at 91.442 limits downside, and the latest rising candle provides no fresh rejection to justify a short.
新:open_short Sell a rally toward the unbroken 92.178 local resistance while EMA20 remains below EMA50. Entry 92.14 stays below the trigger; stop 92.4 clears resistance and the earlier 92.343 high. Target 91.48 precedes first structural support at 91.442, yielding approximately 1.36R after costs. Close 92.004 and mark 91.96 remain below the trigger; the limit may miss renewed downside.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-35.795867697552225

2026-09-26T14:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold The 1.17% rebound occurred on lower volume than the preceding decline and closed below both hourly averages. Resistance at 0.0044465 constrains longs; shorts need a fresh rejection rather than selling directly into this rebound.
新:open_short EMA20 remains below EMA50, and the rebound has not reclaimed the established 0.0044465 rejection high. Sell a retest at 0.004444, with stop above resistance and EMA50. Target precedes first unbroken support at 0.0043747, giving approximately 2.57R net. Unlike the earlier invalidated breakdown short, this uses the later rejection structure; close, mark and limit remain below its trigger.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-32.42552034615511

2026-09-26T20:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold The close broke below 0.0043504 on elevated volume, but a market short now faces the fresh 0.004255 low. Reward to that low is insufficient against a stop above 0.0043739. Wait for a rebound rejection with better room, consistent with the review hypothesis.
新:open_short The 0.0043003 close confirmed a break below 0.0043504 on volume of 6.679 billion, with price below all three EMAs. Sell a rebound at 0.004348 while below the broken-support trigger. Stop 0.004395 clears both the breakdown high at 0.0043739 and preceding rebound high at 0.0043872, improving structural protection versus the earlier narrow-stop loss. Target 0.00426 precedes first support at 0.004255 and offers approximately 1.54R net; a market entry lacks that reward.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-53.904182448115506

2026-09-27T02:00:00+00:00 SOLUSDT
旧:hold Price is near EMA20 at 120.984 with neutral RSI 52.3. Resistance at 121.8 and support around 120.6 constrain both directions; tightening a stop to manufacture sufficient reward would repeat the vulnerability of the recent stopped SOL entry.
新:open_long Buy a pullback to 120.7 against the 120.60–120.63 support cluster; the latest candle established a higher low at 121.02. EMA20 remains above EMA50. Stop 120.4 clears that local base, and target 121.5 precedes the conservative first rebound obstacle at 121.53, providing approximately 1.35R after costs. The narrow range warrants modest risk; a market entry lacks sufficient room.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-32.793873295640594

paper_stocks_claude

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old12/168 · waiting_retry10.220.8889.89
new9/168 · waiting_retry00.7280.5498.79
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T03:00:00+00:00 TSMUSDT
旧:hold TSM closed at 452.92, only 0.02% above 452.84 resistance, on low volume. That isn't a convincing break. With a stop under the 449.49 support, a 1.2R target after costs would need about 459.8, roughly 7 ATR away. Skipping.
新:open_long The 03:00 bar closed at 452.92, above the 452.84 high, at new 14-day highs with no mapped resistance overhead. EMAs are stacked bullish (20 > 50 > 200) and RSI is 65.5. Passive limit at 452.5 inside the 452.17-452.64 recent lows. Stop 449.2 sits below the 449.49 swing support. Target 459.6 is about 3.8 ATR. Net R is about 1.7 at the limit price. Risk is 0.5% because the move is correlated with the INTC long and the breakout is thin.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:None

2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00 INTCUSDT
旧:update_levels The trend is intact with a new high at 130.13, and price is well above EMA20 at 126.66. I'm raising the stop from 127.85 to 128.0, just under the 01-01 03:00 low of 128.07, which cuts the remaining risk while staying about 1 ATR below the mark. The target stays at 131.8.
新:hold Long from 128.63, now at 129.52 after a 130.13 high. There is a small upper wick, but the close is above the 05:00 close. The stop at 127.9 sits below the 01-01 03:00 swing low (128.07) and the 04:00 low (128.2), so it is still structural. Trailing it to 128.5 would put it under 1 ATR (1.27) and invite a noise stop-out. Target 132.5 is kept.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:None

paper_stocks_astra

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old57/168 · ready00.00.00
new63/168 · ready5-1.7693.06949.41
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T05:00:00+00:00 INTCUSDT
旧:hold Bullish trend, but 129.52 is immediately overhead and RSI is 71.4. A stop below the 128.07 consolidation low gives inadequate reward at current prices; prefer the selected AMD pullback over additional correlated exposure.
新:open_long Close 129.27 and mark 129.31 cleared 129.12 after consolidation above 128.07. Stop below that consolidation; the target extends approximately 2.1 ATR above entry and provides approximately 1.54 net reward/risk. No unbroken overhead swing resistance is visible. Lower breakout volume moderates confidence but does not invalidate the confirmed move.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-28.246747335508328

2026-09-25T08:00:00+00:00 TSMUSDT
旧:hold The 455.90 close reclaimed 455.09, but remains beneath 456.00. The breakout candle spans down to 452.98 against ATR 1.841; immediate upside is insufficient for a structural stop.
新:open_long The latest bar recovered from 452.98 and closed at 455.90 above the preceding 455.09 high; the supplied mark of 455.89 also exceeds that trigger. Enter the confirmed breakout after earlier pullback limits expired. Stop below the latest rejection low; target approximately 3.6 ATR above entry, with no remaining overhead swing resistance in the supplied history. Estimated net reward/risk is 1.45. Following AMD's stop adjustment, combined mark-to-stop long risk is approximately 1.98% of equity before costs.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-15.689463635966383

2026-09-25T09:00:00+00:00 SOXLUSDT
旧:hold Mark 152.97 is close to unbroken 153.96–154.10 highs, with structural support at 151.00 and ATR 2.267. Available upside cannot justify a stop beneath that support after costs; the bullish trend also lacks a confirmed short signal.
新:open_long Place a pullback limit at 151.25 above repeated 151.00–151.09 support. The latest candle remains above the older 151.03 breakout trigger; the limit also remains above it. Stop 150.35 invalidates that support shelf. Target 153.80 precedes the first overhead high at 153.96 and offers approximately 2.10R after costs. Use the 0.25% SOXL risk cap.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-29.992241690743178

2026-09-25T13:00:00+00:00 AMDUSDT
旧:hold Bullish EMA alignment persists, but the high-volume sweep to 630.53 weakens the 633.45 support setup. Mark 635.13 is below the former 636.37 breakout trigger; wait for stabilization rather than reuse that breakout entry.
新:open_long The high-volume candle swept 633.45 support to 630.53 and recovered to 636.70; EMA20 remains above EMA50. Buy a pullback at 632.00, with invalidation below the 629.00 base. Close, mark and proposed entry exceed the 630.53 trigger. The first overhead broken support is 638.88; targeting 638.60 yields approximately 1.30R after costs. This uses the broader support structure following the earlier stop-out.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-60.179255611904736

2026-09-27T05:00:00+00:00 MUUSDT
旧:hold The 1091.06 close clears 1090.98 and RSI 64.3 confirms relative strength. However, the earlier rebound high at 1093.93 offers only about 0.26% upside from mark; targeting 1100.40 would count reward through that intervening supply.
新:open_long Close 1091.06 and mark 1091.12 clear 1090.98, with EMA20 above EMA50 and volume increasing to 1269. Stop below the three-bar 1089.11–1089.27 support shelf, allowing a 0.66 buffer. Target precedes the first remaining confirmed swing resistance at 1100.40; estimated net reward/risk is 1.63 at the supplied mark. The narrow stop carries substantial fee drag, but the confirmed breakout provides an executable alternative to another missed pullback.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:None

highrisk_crypto_claude

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old9/168 · waiting_retry00.00.00
new10/168 · waiting_retry12.9662.17633.87
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T05:00:00+00:00 SOLUSDT
旧:hold Price is 116.39, just above 1h support at 116.03. The first obstacle is 15m resistance at 117.29. A long with a stop near 115.9 (0.42%) aiming at 117.29 (0.77%) works out to about 1.1R net, below the 1.2R minimum. 15m MACD is negative and price is below the 15m EMA20 (116.75). Waiting for a reclaim of 117.29/117.73.
新:open_long Trend-pullback setup. On the 4h, EMA20 (115.58) is above EMA50 (112.29), with higher lows at 112.39 and 113.05 after the 12-30 selloff. On the 1h, price is pulling back to EMA20 (116.33) and EMA50 (116.01), into the 116.03 (1h) and 116.11/116.21 (15m) support lows. A market buy at 116.37 fails 1.2R before the 117.29 obstacle. A passive limit at 116.10 with a stop at 115.55, below the 1h swing lows at 115.73/115.83 and the 4h EMA20, gives about 0.47% risk. Target 117.25 sits just under the first obstacle (15m 117.29), for about (0.99-0.14)/(0.47+0.14) = 1.39R. 117.63/117.73 and 118.4 are not assumed to break. The setup is invalid on a break below 115.75. 1h MACD is flat and 15m MACD is negative, which is why I'm using a passive limit rather than chasing.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:296.6053402821865

highrisk_crypto_astra

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old168/168 · complete30.9123.23748.56
new168/168 · complete35-0.44212.9041143.44
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T04:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold The 4h close remains below EMA20 at 0.00448096, and the hourly close remains below EMA50 at 0.00447882. The 15m rebound rejected 0.0044551 and closed at 0.0044184; upside before that high is insufficient against a stop below 0.0043736, while nearby support constrains shorts. Positive 15m MACD alone does not confirm reversal.
新:open_long Passive range-base rebound entry at 0.004393. This is countertrend to the declining recent 4h structure below EMA20 0.00448096, not a broader reversal. Closed 15m candles defended 0.0043736–0.0043763, formed a higher low at 0.004385, and recovered above 0.004411; latest close and mark remain above the 0.004385 validity trigger. Stop 0.004363 sits below the entire base. Target 0.00445 precedes the first unbroken recent high at 0.0044551 and offers approximately 1.41R after costs at the limit price.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:297.2896241386755

2026-09-25T05:00:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold The 4h close is above EMA20 at 1530.71 and hourly price remains above EMA20/50, but two declining hourly closes and a negative 15m MACD histogram weaken pullback confirmation. Mark 1542.48 is barely above confirmed 15m support at 1542.01; recent resistance at 1555.8 precedes 1562.69–1564.4. No confirmed support recovery justifies buying, and immediate support obstructs a countertrend short.
新:open_long Passive trend-pullback entry at 1535: the 4h recovery holds above EMA20 1530.71, and confirmed 1h lows rose from 1521.65 to 1532.06. Closed 15m candles previously defended 1532.06–1535.16 and recovered to 1556.63. Stop 1527 invalidates that higher-low setup. First overhead reaction high is 1555.8; target 1553 yields approximately 1.56R after modeled costs. Latest close 1543.13 and mark 1542.48 remain above trigger 1532.06. This trades the recovery range, without assuming a breakout through 1562.69–1574.99.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:334.18216215701256

2026-09-25T11:00:00+00:00 SOLUSDT
旧:hold The 4h close confirms a breakout above the prior 119.99 range high, but the hourly close is already 2.81 ATR above EMA20 at 117.217. Three declining 15m closes follow the 122.21 spike, with the recent 121.72 lower high opposing renewed upside. A fresh retest hold or consolidation break is needed; current price does not justify chasing or fading the stronger trend.
新:open_long Passive breakout pullback at 120: the 4h and 1h closes cleared the prior 4h range high 119.99, while subsequent 15m candles held above 120.26. Buy a return to the reclaimed 119.68–119.99 zone; stop 119.35 sits below that zone and the prior hourly high 119.58, invalidating breakout support. Conservatively use the latest 15m reaction high 121.22 as the first obstacle, ahead of 121.72 and 122.21. Target 121.18 provides approximately 1.24R after costs. Latest close and mark exceed trigger 119.68; positive MACD supports the structural evidence.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-212.62943572591377

2026-09-25T17:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold The 4h recovery failed below EMA20 0.004479, while hourly price remains below EMA20 0.00445373 and MACD histogram has turned negative. The 15m rebound remains beneath 0.004463 and confirmed resistance 0.0044819. Unbroken support 0.0044044 obstructs shorts, leaving insufficient reward against a stop beyond the rebound structure.
新:open_short Passive failed-rebound short: the recent 4h recovery was rejected below EMA20 0.004479, within a prior 24-bar decline of 10.479%. Hourly price remains below EMA20 and EMA50; closed 15m candles rejected 0.0044819 and subsequently formed a lower hourly high at 0.004463. Sell a rebound to 0.00447 while below trigger 0.0044819. Stop 0.004495 sits above the rejection high and invalidates that setup. The first unbroken confirmed support is 0.0044044; target 0.00441 stays ahead of it and offers approximately 1.72R after costs. This follows the recent decline without asserting reversal of the longer-term advance.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-76.6000350090568

2026-09-25T20:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold The 4h advance and hourly breakout above 0.4647 remain intact, but the latest 15m candle closed at 0.4762 after the 0.4895 spike, back below 4h swing resistance 0.4774–0.4795. Live price 0.4773 leaves virtually no reward before 0.4774. Positive MACD does not establish acceptance above resistance; wait for a fresh retest or consolidation. No confirmed broader reversal supports a short.
新:open_long Passive breakout-pullback long at 0.4705: rising 4h closes above EMA20 0.440728 support the hourly breakout above 0.4711. Closed 15m candles advanced from the 0.469 launch low; the latest close 0.4762 and mark 0.4773 remain above trigger 0.469. Stop 0.4675 sits below that launch base, invalidating its defense. The first overhead obstacle is the 4h swing 0.4774, reclaimed intrahour but lost by the latest close. Target 0.477 stays before it and yields approximately 1.60R after modeled costs. The limit improves geometry following the rejection from 0.4895.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-206.84484631121433

2026-09-25T21:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold The recent 4h recovery failed below 0.0046148, and hourly price is below EMA20/50 at 0.00445496/0.00447119. Negative 15m momentum follows rejection from 0.0045115, but the 0.0044226 mark is almost on fresh support at 0.0044222. That support has no confirmed closing break; shorts lack room and longs lack a confirmed reclaim.
新:open_short Passive failed-breakout rebound short at 0.004487. The recent 4h correction remains below EMA20 0.00447841, and the hourly close is below EMA20 0.00445496. Closed 15m candles briefly cleared 0.0044869, reached 0.0045115, then fell back to 0.0044309, providing fresh rejection evidence beyond the earlier losing short. Latest close and mark 0.0044226 remain below trigger 0.0045115. Stop 0.004524 clears both that rejection high and earlier 15m resistance 0.0045219. First downside obstacle is unbroken 15m support 0.0044222; target 0.004424 exits before it. Net reward is approximately 1.31R at the limit price; the current market price offers insufficient room.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-202.70794938499003

2026-09-25T21:00:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold The failed 4h breakout above 1574.99 has developed into hourly weakness below EMA20/50 at 1553.09/1547.44. Recent 15m lower highs support that direction, but the immediate low at 1525.01 and hourly support at 1521.65 obstruct shorts before 1512.45. Selling at 1530 would chase the decline with insufficient reward before support; no reversal structure supports buying.
新:open_short Passive failed-rebound short at 1553, near 1h EMA20 1553.09 and the closed 15m rebound high 1553.9. This trades a local correction within the larger uptrend: 4h candles rejected 1625.91 and subsequently made a lower low at 1512.45, while hourly rebounds failed at 1564.97. Latest 1h/15m close 1529.81 and mark 1530 are below trigger 1564.97. Stop 1569 clears that rebound high and invalidates the rejection thesis. Recent support at 1530.49–1532.06 has closed below; the first remaining recent downside obstacle is the 15m low 1525.01. Target 1527 stays ahead of it, providing approximately 1.31R after 0.14% costs at the limit price.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-49.682527011053054

2026-09-26T01:00:00+00:00 HYPEUSDT
旧:hold The 4h lower highs at 94.744 and 94.342 keep this a corrective rebound, with hourly price still below EMA50 at 92.582. The latest 15m candle rejected 92.567, but shorting mark 91.99 leaves too little reward before confirmed support at 91.591 relative to a stop above that rejection; longs lack reversal confirmation.
新:open_short Passive failed-rebound short at 92.52. Although the 30-day structure remains higher, recent closed 4h highs descend from 94.744 to 94.342 to 92.806, with the last close below EMA20 92.8309. The latest hourly rebound remains below EMA50 92.582; the final 15m candle rejected 92.567 and closed at 92.124. This targets a local correction, not a confirmed long-term reversal. Stop 92.94 clears the confirmed 1h/15m rejection high 92.806 and invalidates the broader failed rebound. First confirmed support is 15m 91.591; target 91.65 provides approximately 1.35R net of costs. Both latest close and mark 91.99 remain below trigger 92.806. Recent short losses favor requiring this resistance-area fill rather than selling near support.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:290.1264545433745

2026-09-26T07:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold The 4h uptrend and 1h price above EMA20 support a potential pullback long, but closed 15m candles remain below newly confirmed resistance at 0.4848. From mark 0.4837, that obstacle offers only 0.23% gross reward, insufficient after costs. A meaningful stop below 0.4756 worsens the ratio; no continuation breakout is confirmed.
新:open_long Passive trend-pullback long at 0.4778, returning to the defended 15m base around 0.4774–0.4782. The 4h close remains above EMA20 0.452575 within the rising 30-day structure; hourly closes recovered from 0.4777 to 0.4798 to 0.4831. Closed 15m candles confirmed the 0.4756 low and subsequently held 0.4795, supporting a base rebound rather than a confirmed breakout. Latest close 0.4831 and mark 0.4837 exceed trigger 0.4756. Stop 0.4744 lies below the base and invalidates its defense. First resistance is the newly confirmed 15m high 0.4848; target 0.4844 yields approximately 1.46R after costs. The earlier breakout-pullback loss reinforces using this actual base for invalidation.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-203.46266894793666

2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold The 4h breakout above 0.5128 remains intact, but the latest 15m candle rejected 0.5461 and closed at 0.5356 after the rebound from 0.528. That fresh overhead rejection precedes confirmed resistance at 0.5518; allowing a stop below 0.528 leaves inadequate market-entry reward before 0.5461 after costs. The pullback has not established fresh continuation confirmation, and it does not establish a reversal for a short.
新:open_long Passive trend-pullback long at 0.5305. The closed 4h breakout above 0.5128 supports the rising longer structure, and closed 15m candles confirmed support at 0.528 after defending the earlier 0.5256–0.527 base. Latest close 0.5356 and mark 0.5358 remain above trigger 0.5256. Stop 0.523 invalidates that base and gives more structural room than the prior losing tight-stop WLD entries. First overhead reaction is 0.5451, followed by 0.5461; target 0.5445 stays below both and provides approximately 1.61R after costs. The latest rejection favors a passive fill rather than market entry.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-20.51013856668903

2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold The 4h recovery and 1h close above EMA20 1547.62 support a bullish bias, but the 1584.88 wick failed to produce a close above 15m resistance 1575.97. The latest 15m candle fell to 1560.93, back below the earlier 1564.97 range ceiling. Support at 1555.53 remains intact, but a fresh bullish retest confirmation is absent; positive MACD does not resolve the rejection.
新:open_long Passive higher-low pullback long at 1557. The 4h recovery holds above EMA20 1541.42 within the larger uptrend; hourly price cleared 1554, and confirmed 15m support 1555.53 remains intact after the latest low 1558.28. Stop 1550 sits below that higher low and the 1552.4–1554.12 breakout base. First unbroken 15m resistance is 1575.97: target 1574 realizes approximately 1.61R after costs. The 1584.88 wick was rejected, so this trades the recovery without assuming a breakout. Latest close and mark exceed trigger 1555.53.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:346.9942593357286

2026-09-26T20:00:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧:hold Corrective 4h structure and expanding negative 1h/15m MACD support the break below 0.0043504. However, the latest 15m candle rebounded from 0.004255 without retesting broken support; a market short would chase the selloff into nearby lows. A rebound long remains countertrend with overhead resistance around 0.004306–0.0043263 and no reversal confirmation.
新:open_short Passive breakdown-retest short at 0.004355 near broken hourly support 0.0043504. This trades the recent 4h correction within the larger 30-day advance: 4h price remains below EMA20 0.0044579, while the latest hourly and two 15m closes confirm the breakdown. Stop 0.00439 exceeds the 15m highs 0.0043739 and 0.0043872, invalidating the local resistance structure. Latest close 0.0043003 and mark 0.0043023 remain below trigger 0.0043739. Former supports 0.0043263 and 0.0043067 were broken by closes; first unbroken support is 0.0042818. Target 0.004285 offers approximately 1.55R net. This fresh breakdown differs from the earlier failed shorts inside consolidation.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-203.69010977142463

dot_15m_sol

版本进度交易收益回撤费用
old672/672 · complete51.5944.798117.17
new672/672 · complete49-4.98614.1431613.7
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段

2026-09-25T00:45:00+00:00 HYPEUSDT
旧:hold Three successive declining closes confirm weakness below hourly EMA20 92.7292, but price 91.159 is approaching support at 90.582. A stop above the recent 91.726 rebound high leaves inadequate net reward before that support; avoid chasing the decline.
新:open_short Three consecutive declining closes confirm continuation below the former 91.934 consolidation floor; hourly EMA20 92.7292 exceeds price and RSI is 40.2. Sell a rebound at 91.78 while below 91.934, with invalidation above the reclaimed floor and 91.974 former support. Conservatively treat the latest low 91.12 as the first obstacle and target just before it; the limit offers approximately 1.39R after modeled costs. Waiting may miss continued downside.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:313.171183311557

2026-09-25T01:15:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Close 0.4382 remains between support 0.4362 and resistance 0.4428. Mark 0.4374 is approaching support, but the latest candle does not show a convincing rejection; shorts have almost no room before the first support.
新:open_long The rebound from 0.4362 remains valid: latest close 0.4382 and mark 0.4374 are above that floor. Buy a pullback at 0.4365, with structural invalidation below the broader 0.4342 support at 0.4339. Target 0.4412 precedes the first unbroken local supply at 0.4414; net reward/risk is approximately 1.27 after 0.14% costs. Market entry lacks that reward, while this nearer passive entry accepts another missed fill; execution must recheck the quote and trigger.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:272.26600462230294

2026-09-25T04:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Close 0.4313 remains inside the recent consolidation beneath 0.4331, with support 0.4282 and 0.4271 intact. Neither direction offers sufficient reward before nearby structure with a defensible stop.
新:open_short The latest close 0.4313 remains below broken 0.4342 support, and the rebound has stalled beneath the recent 0.4331 high. Sell a rebound at 0.4330, with stop 0.4346 above the broken floor. Target 0.4286 precedes first intact support 0.4284; net reward/risk at the limit is approximately 1.72. Previous limits expired, so this remains an active waiting choice with no assumed fill; the earlier winning long does not override the subsequent support break.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-211.7087437586772

2026-09-25T04:45:00+00:00 SOLUSDT
旧:hold The latest candle fell from 117.18 to 116.36 after the rebound reached 117.29. Unbroken support at 116.21, 116.16 and 116.03 blocks short reward, while this rejection undermines a support-bounce long despite hourly RSI 51.6.
新:open_long Buy a pullback at 116.25 near defended 116.21 support. Latest close 116.36 and mark 116.42 remain above the 116.16 validity floor; stop 115.94 sits below both 116.16 and broader 116.03 support. Target 117.15 precedes the fresh rejection obstacle at 117.29; net reward/risk is approximately 1.56. Hourly EMA20 116.329 above EMA50 115.993 supports the range-edge long, although the latest bearish candle lowers confidence.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-207.47456888350362

2026-09-25T07:00:00+00:00 BTCUSDT
旧:hold Close 83774.7 remains above the unbroken 83708 swing low despite increased selling volume. That first support leaves insufficient short reward after costs; price below hourly EMA20 84222.9 also lacks a confirmed long reversal.
新:open_short Close 83774.7 and executable reference 83800 remain below broken 84018.3 support. Sell a rebound at 83970; stop 84150 invalidates the recent lower-high sequence above 84064.6 and 84123.5. Target 83380 precedes first intact support 83350.5. Including 0.14% costs, planned net reward/risk is approximately 1.59. The latest high-volume breakdown supports active waiting through a short-lived limit.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-94.74572839718863

2026-09-25T13:00:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Close 0.4559 rejected 0.4619 beneath confirmed 0.4621 resistance. A structural stop below 0.4474 leaves more downside risk than available upside reward; tightening below 0.4552 would sit inside recent candle noise. Hourly RSI 69.6 and intact support do not justify a short.
新:open_long Buy a pullback at 0.4535 near the 11:15 defended low 0.4530. Latest close and mark 0.4559 remain above the former range ceiling 0.4528; stop 0.4523 sits below that ceiling and the 0.4525 preceding high. Target 0.4590 precedes first unbroken opposing resistance 0.4594, giving approximately 2.65R after 0.14% costs. Hourly EMA20/50 alignment supports continuation; the earlier failed short does not invalidate this long structure.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-201.4301629378898

2026-09-25T14:15:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold Bullish hourly alignment conflicts with falling 15m closes and rejection at 1599. A long stop below 1570.28 offers inadequate reward before 1599 supply; shorts have little room before unbroken 1571.61 support.
新:open_long Buy a pullback at 1573 against the defended 1571.61 area and 1570.28 sweep. Latest close 1584.94 and mark 1587.16 remain above the 1565.3 validity floor; stop 1562 lies below that broader support. Target 1595 precedes the first nearby opposing supply at 1597, giving approximately 1.50R after 0.14% modeled costs. Hourly EMA20 1564.96 exceeds EMA50 1548.53; the structural stop is about 0.70%, avoiding repetition of the earlier narrowly stopped pullbacks.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-197.40155967913202

2026-09-26T00:30:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Close 0.4976 invalidates the breakout above 0.5035. The candle swept support 0.4932 to 0.4894 and reclaimed it, but a long protected below the sweep lacks 1.2R before 0.5035; shorting faces nearby reclaimed support and a strong hourly trend.
新:open_long The latest candle swept 0.4932 to 0.4894 but recovered to 0.4976; mark 0.4991 remains above the earlier 0.4912 breakout ceiling. Buy a pullback at 0.4935 while above 0.4912. Stop 0.4888 lies below the sweep and former 0.4895 ceiling, avoiding the very tight invalidations seen in recent losing longs. First overhead obstacle is the broken 0.5028 floor; target 0.5025 precedes it. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.54; a market entry lacks that room.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-25.31460793464714

2026-09-26T03:45:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold 0.4803 support held, but the rebound to 0.4821 has not cleared the recent 0.4837 high or 0.4863 rebound resistance. Hourly RSI 64 and rising EMA alignment support the broader trend, while the 15m lower-high sequence remains unresolved.
新:open_short Close 0.4821 and executable reference 0.4824 remain below broken 0.4860 support, with lower rebound highs at 0.4863 and 0.4837. Sell a rebound at 0.4850; stop 0.4868 invalidates the rejection above 0.4863. Target 0.4806 precedes first intact support 0.4803, giving approximately 1.50R after modeled costs. Previous tight-stop losses favor respecting this structural invalidation; a market short lacks sufficient room.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-192.94723632685645

2026-09-26T04:45:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold Latest candle rejected 0.4876 and closed at 0.482, near unbroken support 0.4804–0.4803. Hourly RSI 63.9 supports the broader uptrend, but repeated upper-wick rejections weaken a long reversal setup; shorts cannot count reward through nearby support.
新:open_long Latest close 0.4820 and executable reference 0.4831 remain above repeatedly defended 0.4803–0.4804 support. Buy passively at 0.4812 after the latest rejection of 0.4876; stop 0.4788 invalidates the range floor with more room than the recent losing tight-stop shorts. Target 0.4861 precedes first intact supply at 0.4863. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.37 after 0.14% costs; market entry does not qualify. Expiry limits exposure to a stale range setup, although the rebound may leave the order unfilled.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-106.53906526032479

2026-09-27T00:15:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧:hold The latest candle swept resistance at 0.527 but closed back below it at 0.5241. Support at 0.5212 remains intact, so neither breakout direction is confirmed; nearby resistance limits a long's reward after costs.
新:open_long Repeated sweeps of 0.5212 held, followed by closes 0.5231, 0.5240 and 0.5241. Buy passively at 0.5215 while close and mark remain above 0.5212; stop 0.5188 allows a buffer beneath the defended floor. Target 0.5268 precedes intact 0.5270 resistance and yields approximately 1.33 net reward/risk. Earlier WLD support longs lost, but this entry is at the newly defended range edge with bullish hourly averages; avoid paying market price after the latest resistance rejection.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-186.95751029511283

2026-09-27T04:00:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧:hold Close 1635.26 confirms weakness below the 1636.9 swing low. However, prior breakout structure at 1625.91 offers only about 0.57% downside, while a stop above the recent 1647.34–1648 rebound highs would leave insufficient net reward. Hourly EMA20 above EMA50 and RSI 65 also make the short a countertrend setup.
新:open_short Close 1635.26 and executable reference 1634.60 are below the broken 1636.90 floor, extending the declining 15m consolidation. Enter at market rather than repeat expired rebound limits. Stop 1658 sits above the 1656.18 rejection; target 1595 precedes the former 1592.32 breakout ceiling and impulse base. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.45 after 0.14% modeled costs. The bullish hourly trend remains a countertrend risk; the earlier losing support-buy setup is different.
已成交分支的平仓净损益:-54.50838852591035