dot_15m_sol
| 版本 | 进度 | 交易 | 收益 | 回撤 | 费用 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| old | 91/91 · complete | 12 | -2.778 | 5.827 | 484.5 |
| new | 91/91 · complete | 5 | -5.039 | 7.763 | 185.23 |
旧/新决策不同的实际回放片段
2026-10-01T16:15:00+00:00 SOLUSDT
旧：hold The latest candle is essentially unchanged at 117.43 within the rebound range. Shorts encounter 116.89 and 116.69 support, while longs face 117.65 and 117.88 resistance; structural stops and costs leave insufficient reward at current price. Reassess a rejection near 117.88 for a passive short or a confirmed break above 118.19 for a long.
新：open_short Daily bullish structure is losing momentum, while 4h and 1h prices remain below their EMA20/50 with negative MACD histograms and RSI near 44/43. This relative weakness justifies a conditional short despite BTC strength; the improving 15m histogram currently indicates a rebound, not a confirmed reversal. The previous 117.88 limit expired without participation. A market short near 117.47 fails reward before the latest repeated lows at 117.19. Instead, sell a wick into verified 117.88 resistance at 117.97, within the 0.09407 tolerance, expecting rejection rather than assuming a future reclaim. Stop 118.27 buffers the 118.06-118.19 resistance cluster; trigger 118.06 must remain unbroken. Target 117.20 precedes the first obstacle 117.19 and offers approximately 1.30R after modeled costs.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：295.3535220585562
2026-10-01T17:30:00+00:00 BNBUSDT
旧：hold The latest close holds above the broken 772.94 ceiling after testing 772.61. Continuation is credible, but BTC receives the long-side budget. Reassess a pullback holding 772.94 with a stop below the retest and sufficient net reward before the older 778.49-780 supply, if capacity becomes available.
新：open_long Daily price remains above EMA20/50, although DIF 17.44 trails DEA 20.84. Closed 4h structure is mixed, but DIF exceeds DEA with positive histogram 0.973; the last hourly histogram is still negative and ends at 00:59, before this breakout. Two newer 15m closes at 774.39 and 774.22 clear 772.94, and the latest pullback to 772.61 closes back above it with DIF above DEA, rising histogram 0.699 and 1.51x volume. This developing recovery follows BTC strength, with ETH's hourly weakness limiting confidence. Use market participation around 774 rather than another potentially missed retest limit. Stop 772.15 buffers the latest pullback low; target 779.65 precedes the first structural resistance at 780. Net reward is approximately 1.56R after 0.14% costs. Both close and supplied executable reference remain above trigger 772.94; loss of the defended breakout invalidates the thesis.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：-201.7889290323477
2026-10-01T17:30:00+00:00 BTCUSDT
旧：open_long The expired 84650 entry missed continuation: the latest candle instead tested 84726.4 and closed at 85022.8. Buy a shallower pullback at 84780 above the confirmed 84599.9 breakout, with invalidation below that ceiling at 84550. The first opposing supply is the repeated 85491 highs; target 85440 yields approximately 1.55R net of 0.14% costs. A market entry has insufficient room with this structural stop, while another deep limit risks missing continuation.
新：hold Daily price remains above EMA20/50; 4h DIF exceeds DEA with histogram rising to 61.31, and hourly RSI/histogram improve to 56.55/38.02. The latest 15m breakout has expanding momentum and 1.72x volume, so abstention risks missing continuation. However, at 84992.3 a buffered stop below 84726.4, around 84680, cannot earn 1.2R net even toward 85632.7, with earlier supply around 85491. Reassess a defended retest of 84599.9 or clearance of the overhead supply with executable reward and structural protection.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：-120.3879055747286
2026-10-02T03:45:00+00:00 BNBUSDT
旧：open_long 776.3 holds the confirmed 775.91 breakout, with bullish hourly EMA alignment. Buy a pullback at 775.4 near the latest 775.44 low; stop 773.7 clears the 773.86-774.22 consolidation lows. Target precedes confirmed 780 resistance. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.23 after 0.14% costs. The expired 775.3 order missed by 0.14; this modest adjustment preserves structural invalidation.
新：hold Daily price remains above EMA20/50; the new 4h EMA20 exceeds EMA50 and DIF/DEA is 0.785/-0.668. Hourly and 15m histograms expand with rising RSI and volume, providing stronger confirmation than the earlier losing breakout. Nevertheless, 776.62 to resistance 780 yields less than 1.2R net even at the minimum allowed stop. A pullback around 774.2 with protection below 772 could qualify, but PEPE receives the single 2% long-side allocation. Reassess that pullback when capacity is available or a closed 780 breakout with fresh structural room.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：268.5996985956351
2026-10-02T05:15:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧：open_short 1400 resistance has held through two subsequent closes; the latest 1392.4 close and 1392.76 mark remain below it. Sell a rebound at 1398, with a stop above the rejection high at 1403. Conservatively use 1386.15 as the first support and exit ahead of it at 1386.8: net reward/risk is approximately 1.33 after 0.14% costs. Hourly EMA20 remains below EMA50 and EMA200; the strong recent rally makes a market short less attractive.
新：hold Daily price below EMA20 and 4h DIF/DEA -42.97/-37.31 retain bearish higher-timeframe bias, conflicting with bullish anchors. However, hourly histogram jumps to 4.708 on 3.34x volume, and the latest 15m close 1392.40 holds the rebound with DIF above DEA. Long reward is blocked first at 1400; shorting here would repeat the recent losing pattern of fading an improving rebound without a fresh breakdown. Reassess an observed rejection of 1400-1406.16 followed by loss of 1385.71 for a short, or clearance and defense of 1417.70 for a possible reversal long; calculate reward against the then-current first obstacle.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：286.2000376688835
2026-10-02T07:30:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧：open_short The failed continuation long has developed into successive closes below the 0.0045488–0.0045557 support cluster. Sell a rebound at 0.004553, below the 0.0045557 trigger; stop 0.004568 clears the 15:00 rejection high of 0.0045656. The prior 0.0045122 low remains the first unbroken downside obstacle despite the latest wick sweep, so target 0.004513 before it. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.57; latest close and supplied price remain below the trigger.
新：hold Daily loss halt blocks entry after the earlier long stopped. Daily bullish EMA structure and positive 4h/hourly MACD remain, but the latest close 0.0045159 is below 15m EMA20 0.00453307; RSI declines to 49.33 and histogram to -0.00001013. Once permitted, reassess defense of the 0.00449 sweep with renewed momentum and reward before 0.0046028. Earlier unfilled limits were missed participation, but the current falling sequence does not establish a defended continuation entry.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：-192.54599520770188
2026-10-02T07:45:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧：open_long The 0.5279 sweep recovered to 0.5329, followed by a 0.5349 close, preserving the breakout above 0.5276. Buy a pullback at 0.5298 within the reclaimed breakout band; 0.527 invalidates below the sweep low. Conservatively treat 0.5358 as the first opposing supply and target 0.5355. The 0.529% stop and 1.076% reward yield approximately 1.40R after 0.14% costs. A market entry lacks this geometry; the limit accepts the risk of missing continuation.
新：hold Mandatory daily loss halt, despite potential recovery participation. Daily price above EMA20/50 and positive daily MACD align with bullish anchors; 4h histogram improves to -0.000695 and hourly DIF/DEA 0.002921/-0.001538 supports recovery. The 5279 sweep holds on closes, but the latest 15m histogram contracts to 0.000136 and 0.5370 precedes confirmed 0.5435 resistance. Once permitted, reassess defended 0.5279 structure and clearance of 0.5370, comparing market and passive entries against buffered invalidation and net reward before the first obstacle.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：295.80369398425694
2026-10-02T08:30:00+00:00 ETHUSDT
旧：open_long The expired 2749 limit missed continuation, but the latest 2758.61 close and 2755.47 mark preserve the confirmed 2748 breakout. Buy at 2752 near the latest 2752.38 pullback low; 2740 invalidates below the breakout impulse's 2741.01 low. Target ahead of first opposing supply at 2779; net reward/risk is approximately 1.33. This captures a shallower pullback while allowing structural invalidation.
新：hold Mandatory daily loss halt prevents participation in an observed breakout. The 2758.61 close remains above 2748, aligned with bullish 4h/hourly structure and expanding 15m DIF/DEA 9.11/6.64. Once permitted, compare market continuation with a defended 2748 retest using current execution prices and net reward before 2779; RSI 71 alone does not veto entry.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：-120.58102613560207
2026-10-02T09:45:00+00:00 ZECUSDT
旧：open_short The latest 1387 close and 1390.13 mark remain below the confirmed 1395.26 rejection. Sell a rebound at 1394; 1397 invalidates above that rejection, with a 0.215% stop distance. The latest 1382.03 low is the first opposing support; target 1382.8 gives approximately 1.87R after modeled costs. Prior cancelled limits do not justify a market short, whose reward is materially worse.
新：hold Mandatory daily loss halt. Daily histogram -39.326 and 4h price below EMA20/50 retain relative weakness versus bullish anchors, but hourly DIF/DEA -3.003/-10.930 and RSI 54.43 show an active rebound. Close 1387 remains between support 1377.08 and resistance 1395.26. Once permitted, reassess an observed resistance rejection with renewed downside momentum or clearance of the 1395.26-1400 cluster; two stopped shorts warn against assuming the rebound has ended.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：-196.56807740839176
2026-10-02T10:45:00+00:00 WLDUSDT
旧：open_long The 0.5385 close and 0.5373 executable reference remain above confirmed 0.5359 support, with bullish hourly EMA alignment. Buy a pullback at 0.5362; 0.5348 invalidates below that support. Conservatively use the latest 0.5403 rejection high as the first obstacle and target 0.5398 ahead of it. The 0.261% stop and 0.671% target give approximately 1.32R after 0.14% modeled costs. This active limit accepts possible nonexecution while avoiding inadequate market-entry reward.
新：hold Daily halt prevents entry. Daily/4h EMA structure aligns with bullish anchors, and the negative 4h histogram has improved, but hourly histogram softens to 0.004297 and 15m histogram deteriorates to -0.0005924. Support 0.5359 holds beneath first verified resistance 0.5435. After eligibility returns, reassess a defended-support long or confirmed obstacle clearance with executable net reward; the earlier unfilled target is missed participation, not profit.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：288.80324175816327
2026-10-02T12:45:00+00:00 1000PEPEUSDT
旧：open_short The latest 0.0044727 close and 0.0044721 executable reference remain below the broken 0.0044900 support despite the rebound. Sell at 0.004486 beneath that trigger; stop 0.004516 clears the 0.0045057 failed rebound sweep rather than repeating the earlier tight-stop reversal. Conservatively use the latest 0.0044288 low as the first opposing obstacle and target just above it. Net reward/risk is approximately 1.33; the expired limit is reassessed against this new, closer rebound.
新：hold Daily halt prohibits entry. Daily EMA structure and positive 4h DIF/DEA remain supportive, but 4h histogram contracts and hourly histogram worsens to -0.00000932 while price remains below hourly EMA20 0.00448332. The 15m rebound to 0.0044727 improves RSI and histogram but remains below EMA20/50 near 0.004499, diverging from stronger anchors. Once eligible, reassess actual clearance of 0.0045057 with defended structure and sufficient reward before overhead supply, or an observed rejection supporting a relative-weakness short. Earlier missed limits and the stopped long are neither profits nor automatic vetoes.
已成交分支的平仓净损益：-198.4127806953872